Cornyn and Kirk in Tight U.S. Senate Race; Less Than Three Points Separate Candidates

5/21/2002

From: Jeff Montgomery of Montgomery and Associates, 512-478-0002

AUSTIN, Texas, May 21 -- Texas Attorney General John Cornyn and former Dallas Mayor Ron Kirk are running neck and neck for the U.S. Senate, according to a recent statewide survey.

This Texas Politics survey is the fourth in a yearlong series of surveys addressing the 2002 Texas elections and launched by Montgomery and Associates, an independent research firm based in Austin, Texas. This survey was conducted from May 7-13, 2002 and tested 1,066 Texas residents who had voted in at least one of the last two general elections. The margin of error is plus or minus 3 percent. Montgomery & Associates is conducting the survey independently, and has not been paid by any candidate or party.

In a trial heat between Cornyn, a Republican, and Democrat Kirk, Cornyn took 46.3 percent of the statewide vote, compared to 43.7 percent for Kirk -- a lead just inside the margin of error. Only 8.7 percent were undecided, and 1.4 percent refused.

The sharpest division here was along ethnic lines, with 57.5 percent of Hispanics and 83.9 percent of blacks supporting Kirk, while 56.5 percent of Anglos support Cornyn. The race stayed tight in most regions across the state, although Cornyn led in Houston (54.7 percent to 32 percent) while Kirk led in the South Texas/Border area (52.1 percent to 38.7 percent). Surprisingly, the race was close in Kirk's own Dallas/Fort Worth region, where he led Cornyn by about five points. Support for Cornyn rose sharply with income, and each candidate took about 75 percent of the vote from his own party.

Jeff Montgomery, president of Montgomery & Associates, noted that "This race should be a an exciting one to watch. With so few of the voters undecided almost five months out, both candidates will need to work to earn the margin that will put them over the top."

When asked whether their impression of each candidate was generally favorable, generally unfavorable, or neutral, 37.9 percent of these likely voters said they had a favorable impression of Attorney General Cornyn and 10.2 percent had an unfavorable impression. "While that's good favorable-unfavorable ratio," Montgomery said, "it is surprising that 29.6 percent are neutral or have no opinion, and 22.3 percent have not heard of him. Those are low numbers for a prominent statewide elected official."

37.7 percent of voters had a favorable impression of Ron Kirk and 15.2 percent had an unfavorable impression, also an acceptable ratio. 30.4 percent were neutral or had no opinion, and 16.7 percent had not heard of him, making him at least as well known as Cornyn. Both Kirk's favorables and unfavorables were higher in the Dallas/Fort Worth area, and he was much less well known in Houston.