NTUF: Shift To GOP Will Slow, Not Shrink, Growth In Federal Spending

11/18/2002

From: Tom McClusky or John Berthoud of National Taxpayers Union Foundation, 703-683-5700

ALEXANDRIA, Va., Nov. 18 -- The Republican takeover in the U.S. Senate has boosted President Bush's Homeland Security Bill and his judicial nominees, but according to a study from the non-partisan National Taxpayers Union Foundation (NTUF), the Senate shift may not have as big an impact on other, budget-related proposals as some have been led to believe.

"When Republican lawmakers take the reins of Senate Committees from Democrats, incoming Chairmen and Chairwomen seem likelier to slow the gallop of federal spending bills than they are to bridle budgets or bring them to a halt," said NTUF Senior Policy Analyst and study author Tom McClusky.

McClusky's analysis utilized NTUF's computerized BillTally system, which assigns a taxpayer cost to virtually every spending bill in Congress and provides the impact on annual federal spending if all the proposals a given lawmaker sponsored or cosponsored became law. Policymakers and the public have relied on BillTally, which uses neutral "scoring" techniques, for impartial cost accounting reports since the system's creation in 1991. Among the findings of the latest study:

-- Based on media projections of who will become the new leaders of Senate, incoming potential Republican Chairs supported legislation in the 106th Congress that would increase annual federal spending by an average of $12.8 billion. In contrast, outgoing Democratic Chairs called for an average annual boost of $36.6 billion, or nearly three times more than their successors.

-- However, both incoming and outgoing Committee Chairs have, over time, moved away from advocating spending cuts or more modest growth. Between the 104th and 106th Congresses, the new GOP Chairs retreated from a net agenda that would save taxpayers $15 billion per year to the current one that would cost $12.8 billion. Over the same period, Democrat and Independent Senators, who are finishing their tenure as Committee Chairs, boosted their net agendas seven-fold, from an annual increase of $5.3 billion to the present $36.6 billion.

-- Beyond averages, a case-by-case examination of Committees shows wide variations. The incoming Budget, Commerce and Finance Chairs, for example, will have spending agendas of 1/3, 1/10, and 1/4 the amounts, respectively, of the predecessors. On the other hand, the spending totals for the current and future Agriculture Chairs are nearly identical, and, in fact, both lawmakers sponsored two of the same big-ticket farm policy bills.

-- "It is now up to President Bush to push for his Congressional agenda of making the 2001 tax cut permanent, passing an energy bill, and creating an Office of Homeland Security - all under his hopes of at least a semblance of fiscal restraint," McClusky concluded. "Cost-conscious voters will no doubt be watching Members of both parties over the coming months, to see for themselves if a new majority will truly bring new priorities to Washington."

------ NTUF is the research and education affiliate of the 335,000-member National Taxpayers Union. Note: Copies of NTUF Issue Brief "143, New Majority, New Priorities," are available upon request or online at www.ntu.org. The study contains a detailed committee-by-committee comparison of changes in proposed spending for incoming and outgoing Chairs.