Sabato Gives Summertime Sneak Peak at Mid-Term Elections

6/28/2002

From: University of Virginia Center for Politics, 434-243-8468

WASHINGTON, June 28 -- Yesterday, Frontiers of Freedom sponsored a "Freedom Briefing" where Capitol Hill staff, academics and members of the press were given a "crystal ball" forecast of the upcoming mid-term elections by renowned elections expert Dr. Larry Sabato. Sabato is director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia.

"First and foremost, we must thank the candidates in 2000 for so clearly defining the American political map," Sabato remarked. "In doing so I believe there are now five key election factors to watch."

1. Presidential popularity. Sabato: "Rarely do high approval numbers for a president lift his party, but low approval numbers for the president very often will bring his party down. If Bush's numbers remain high this should help the GOP avoid some of the historic trends."

2. War on Terror. Sabato: "A lot can change between June and the first Tuesday in November and how the public perceives our success in the war will have a huge effect."

3. State of the Economy. Sabato: "Are we in a recession or not? If the economy is not recovering as everyone had hoped or believed , it could certainly play a role in Democrat campaigns. But Democrats arguing over the loss of the surplus and rising deficits won't work due to 9/11. That's just not going to sell."

4. Redistricting. Sabato: "Redistricting is not likely to be the factor Republicans hoped it would be. But if there is an advantage to be had, it certainly goes to the GOP."

5. Scandal Factor. Sabato: "Enron has fallen off the radar. Democrats hoped for a scandal with legs but it appears they will not beat the Enron drum. Something could develop with the other corporate scandals in the news but at this point Enron should be a non-issue come November."

Sabato predicts that if everything went the Republican's way, they could win as many as four Senate seats. He believes the same is true for Democrats. A more likely scenario, he concludes, is a swing of one or two to either party. "In the U.S. House," Sabato says, "there are only 36 competitive races, 18 of which are already Democrat seats. I do not see Democrats winning enough to retake control barring a very strong wind suddenly blowing their way."

Sabato believes that turnout in November will be from 35-38 percent. "The primaries thus far in 2002 have had abysmal turnout. People did not turn flag waiving patriotism into voting, and that's a real shame. Americans need to learn that politics is a good thing!"

Dr. Sabato made specific predictions on almost every Gubernatorial and Senate race plus many House races. For more information or to schedule an interview. please contact The University of Virginia Center for Politics, 434-243-8468.

Frontiers of Freedom is a non-profit, non-partisan public policy institute dedicated to protecting the constitutional rights of all Americans and restoring constitutional limits on the extent and power of government.

The University of Virginia Center for Politics mission is to promote the value of politics and improve civics education and increase civic participation through comprehensive research, pragmatic analysis, and innovative educational programs.