Democratic U.S. Senate Primary Headed for a Runoff; Morales Looking Good, But Bentsen Or Kirk Could Be Out March 12

2/13/2002

From: Jeff Montgomery of Montgomery and Associates, 512-478-0002

AUSTIN, Texas, Feb. 13 -- The Democratic primary for Phil Gramm's U.S. Senate seat will go into a runoff -- and there's a good chance either Congressman Ken Bentsen or former Dallas Mayor Ron Kirk won't make it in, while schoolteacher Victor Morales right now is poised to be in such a runoff. But almost a third of Democratic voters are still undecided.

This Texas Politics survey is the third in a year-long series of surveys addressing the 2002 Texas elections and launched by Montgomery and Associates, an independent research firm based in Austin, Texas. This survey, which follows a similar one conducted in July 2001, was conducted from February 6-10, 2002, and tested 1,002 Texas residents who had voted in at least one of the last two Democratic primaries. The margin of error is plus or minus 3 percent. Montgomery & Associates is conducting the survey independently, and has not been paid by any candidate or party.

In a trial heat among the five candidates for the Democratic U.S. Senate nomination, Sanchez leads, with Bentsen and Kirk in a statistical tie for second place. Results were as follows:

Vote or lean towards Schoolteacher Victor Morales......26.7 percent Houston Congressman Ken Bentsen...18.5 percent Former Dallas Mayor Ron Kirk......16.6 percent Retired Attorney Gene Kelly.......2.6 percent Attorney Ed Cunningham............1.6 percent Other.............................0.3 percent Undecided.........................31.3 percent Refused/won't vote................2.5 percent

There were predicable regional differences in the candidates' support: Kirk took 44.8 percent of the vote in Dallas; Bentsen took 52.1 percent in Houston; and Morales took 40.7 percent in the South Texas/Border region. Once again, East Texas looks like a key swing area, with nearly half the Democratic voters (49.3 percent) still undecided there in this U.S. Senate race.

Besides South Texas, Morales derives his strength from Hispanic voters (42.2 percent) and voters aged 18-34 (42.1 percent).

When asked whether their impression of each candidate was generally favorable, generally unfavorable, or neutral, 20.9 percent of these Democratic primary voters said they had a favorable impression of Ron Kirk. 6.7 percent had an unfavorable impression (a good favorable-unfavorable ratio), and 27 percent were neutral or had no opinion. 45.5 percent had not heard of him. Those numbers show only the smallest change, mostly in the "neutral" category, since last summer, when Kirk had a favorable rating of 17.7 percent, an unfavorable rating of 4.8 percent, and a neutral rating of 15.6 percent. 61.9 percent had not heard of him at all at that time.

Ken Bentsen's numbers were very similar to Kirk's. 21.8 percent of these voters said they had a favorable impression of Bentsen, 4.2 percent had an unfavorable impression (another good favorable-unfavorable ratio), and 28.2 percent were neutral or had no opinion. 45.9 percent had not heard of him. His numbers too have remained almost unchanged since last summer, when Bentsen had a favorable rating of 20.8 percent, an unfavorable rating of 4.1 percent, and a neutral rating of 17.7 percent. 57.4 percent had not heard of him then.

"With well under 30 percent of Democrats feeling they have enough information about Kirk or Bentsen to form an opinion, their recognition is fairly low," said Jeff Montgomery, president of Montgomery and Associates.

Victor Morales, who was not tested last summer, showed the best recognition of the three leaders in this race. 36.4 percent of these voters said they had a favorable impression of Bentsen. 7.2 percent had an unfavorable impression (an excellent favorable-unfavorable ratio), and 34.7 percent were neutral or had no opinion. 21.7 percent had not heard of him.

"Morales has a higher recognition here, with 43.6 percent of voters knowing enough about him to be able to form an opinion," said Montgomery. "But he too has a lot of work to do. This survey indicates that only one thing is certain about the March 12th primary for Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate: it will end in a runoff. But it's not yet clear who will make that runoff."