Six-Month Assessment of Iraq Urges Strategic Redirection 12/4/2003
From: Krista Hendry of the Fund for Peace, 202-223-7940 ext. 212 or khendry@fundforpeace.org WASHINGTON, Dec. 4 -- A report released today by The Fund for Peace (FfP) concludes that the U.S. invasion of Iraq went beyond regime change and unwittingly resulted in a complete collapse of the state. Failure to anticipate state disintegration represents the gravest strategic miscalculation of the war, according to the report, and its ramifications are being felt today in a pattern of persistent breakdown. "Shattered states do not eliminate threats," said Pauline H. Baker, author of the report. "Rather, they proliferate threats. That is exactly what is happening in Iraq." While acknowledging some progress, the FfP found that the current strategy -- to fast-track the political transition -- will not work because it measures success solely on the speed with which the old regime is replaced. "Sustainable security depends on building the institutional foundations through which new leaders must govern. For an exit strategy to succeed," said Baker, "it cannot leave behind a weak state that is likely to collapse again." The Fund for Peace report recommends a strategic shift away from the model of regime change toward a new framework of rebuilding the state. "In the long term," added retired Gen. Evelyn "Pat" Foote, "the goal is helping Iraqis define their own destiny." Three actions to be taken immediately are: 1) Fund projects that will have a direct impact on relieving frustrations of ordinary civilians, such as jobs creation, basic health services, and low-income housing in urban ghettos that are hotbeds of political activism; 2) Establish wider political bodies that can allow Iraqis a broader role in shaping the future state, such as an Electoral Commission, a Civil Service Commission, and a Human Rights Commission; and 3) Eliminate private militias and absorb their members into state security institutions where they will be vetted, retrained and deployed in mixed units, so they do not have the capacity to challenge legitimately constituted civil authorities when coalition forces withdraw. The study, which was done with the FfP conflict assessment methodology, will be updated at six-month intervals to evaluate progress toward sustainable security. "This framework has proven itself in places like Rwanda and the Balkans. This Iraq report," said retired Gen. Nicholas Kehoe, "gives decision-makers in Washington and Iraq a coherent picture as to the emerging trends on the ground in Iraq, and proposes practical steps to establish sustainable security." ------ The report can be found at http://www.fundforpeace.org/publications/reports/iraq-rep01.php ------ The Fund For Peace is a Washington-based non-profit organization whose mission is to prevent war and alleviate the conditions that cause war. It promotes education and research for practical solutions and is a consistent advocate of promoting social justice and respect for the principles of constitutional democracy. For more information, please visit: http://www.fundforpeace.org. Speakers were: Pauline H. Baker, President of the FfP, is author of the report. An Adjunct Professor at Georgetown University, Dr. Baker specializes in ethnic politics, failed states and US foreign policy. Gen. Pat Foote, a FfP Trustee and recipient of the Distinguished Service Medal, has over 30 years of active service as commander of one of the Army's first gender-integrated basic training battalion and has served in numerous capacities, including Vice Chair of the Secretary of the Army's Senior Review Panel on Sexual Harassment. Gen. Nick Kehoe, also a FfP Trustee, has over 34 years of active service and extensive experience in top international security policy positions within the Air Force and NATO. He is the first president of the Congressional Medal of Honor Foundation, which promotes awareness of what America's highest military award for valor in combat represents. |