Swing Voters: A Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research /PBS To the Contrary Poll

7/10/2004

From: Anna Greenberg of Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research, 202-478-8330; Bonnie Erbe of To the Contrary, 202-973-0079

WASHINGTON, July 10 -- The two key sets of swing voters this election year are single women and religious voters -- critical to both presidential campaigns. Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research and PBS' To the Contrary teamed up to see how the candidates are doing on these two fronts. The Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research/To the Contrary poll of 1,000 likely voters shows President Bush is doing an unexpectedly good job in one respect, but could use help in another. Seventy 70 percent of likely women told our pollsters, "jobs and healthcare are more important than gay marriage" when choosing whom to support. A much smaller 27 percent of the polls' sampling agree with the statement, "if a candidate is open to legalizing gay marriages, I'm against him no matter what." Still, 81 percent percent of women describe themselves as having old-fashioned family and marriage values. This suggests the wedge issue of gay marriage may not be working to the President's advantage with women voters and must be finessed (i.e., downplayed as much as possible if Republicans want to target the women's vote.).

Meanwhile, a minority of female likely voters (38 percent) say religious conservatives have too much influence in the Bush Administration. This suggests the President has satisfied his Christian evangelical base, while not turning off women voters with high-level appointments of religious conservatives such as Attorney General John Ashcroft or federal policies such as banning most stem cell research.

Lastly, the Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research/To the Contrary poll revealed a stark difference between how white single and white married women plan to vote. Bush leads among white married women by 15 points (56 percent to 41 percent) and Kerry leads among white unmarried women by an 11 point spread in the opposite direction. (54 percent to 43 percent.) Pollster Anna Greenberg says "There are big political differences between married and unmarried women. Unmarried women represent 20 percent of the electorate and present a real opportunity for Democrats this cycle. Republicans will need to work to lock in married women's vote."

For full poll results or political analysis contact pollster Anna Greenberg, Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research, 202-478-8330. For political analysis contact Bonnie Erbe, host, PBS' To the Contrary and columnist, Scripps Howard Newspapers, 202-973-0079.