Texas Politics Survey: Perry's Lead Cut in Half; Governor Still Leads Sanchez by 12 Points

8/15/2002

From: Jeff Montgomery of Montgomery & Associates, 512-478-0002

AUSTIN, Texas, Aug. 15 -- Incumbent Republican Gov. Rick Perry, who held a 25-point lead over Democratic challenger Tony Sanchez in May, now leads by only 12 points, according to a recent statewide survey.

This Texas Politics survey is the fifth in a year-long series of surveys addressing the 2002 Texas elections and launched by Montgomery and Associates, an independent research firm based in Austin, Texas. This survey was conducted from July 31-August 8, 2002, and tested 1,152 Texas residents who had voted in at least one of the last two general elections. The margin of error is plus or minus 3 percent. Montgomery & Associates is conducting the survey independently, and has not been paid by any candidate or party.

In a trial heat between Perry and Sanchez, Gov. Perry took 52.5 percent of the statewide vote, compared to 40 percent for Sanchez. 4.7 percent were undecided, 1 percent chose another candidate, and 1.8 percent refused.

In the May 2002 Texas Politics survey, Gov. Perry had 59.4 percent compared to 34.3 percent for Sanchez.

Jeff Montgomery, president of Montgomery & Associates, noted that "Although Gov. Perry leads by 12 points, Tony Sanchez has made up a lot of ground in two and a half months. The race has clearly become more interesting."

Gov. Perry leads in every geographic region except the South Texas/Border region, where he trails Sanchez by about 10 points. Perry's lead is strongest in Dallas, where he leads Sanchez by about 27 points.

There remains a strong split along ethnic lines in this race, with Sanchez holding a strong lead among Hispanics (63.5 percent, compared to 30.3 percent for Perry) and blacks (a 52-point margin over Perry), while Anglos go to Perry by 67.6 percent to 25.6 percent, more than 42 points.

But Gov. Perry's lead among Anglos has decreased about 5 points since May, while Sanchez's lead among Hispanics and blacks has increased.

Gov. Perry's favorable-unfavorable rating has also changed for the worse since May. In May, 65.5 percent of likely voters had a favorable impression of him and 14.7 percent had an unfavorable impression, an excellent ratio. Now, 52.4 percent have a favorable impression and 26.2 percent have an unfavorable impression -- a distinctly mediocre ratio. "That trend is a troubling one for the Perry campaign," Montgomery said.

Gov. Perry's numbers have fallen particularly among Hispanic voters. In May 2002, the governor's favorable number among Hispanics was 30.4 points higher than his unfavorable. In this poll, among Hispanics, his favorable number is only 5.7 points higher than his unfavorable number.

Sanchez's favorable number stayed about the same as it was in May, but his unfavorable went up about 9 points. In this month's poll, 38.1 percent of voters had a favorable impression of Sanchez, while 32.4 percent had an unfavorable impression -- a bad favorable/unfavorable ratio.

"Polls are about trends," Montgomery observed, "and these latest numbers show Gov. Perry's numbers trending downwards, while Sanchez's numbers generally were trending upward. Unless this trend changes, Gov. Perry could be in serious trouble."