Poll: Swing Voters More Critical of Bush on Iraq; Majority Says President Was Misleading, Slight Majority Says War Not Necessary

7/29/2003

From: Steven Kull of the Program on International Policy Attitudes, 202-232-7500

COLLEGE PARK, Md., July 29 -- An analysis of recent polls conducted by Program on International Policy Attitudes/Knowledge Networks finds that swing voters are considerably more critical of Bush's handling of Iraq than the general population, with majorities saying that Bush was being misleading when he presented evidence to justify going to war and questioning the necessity of going to war. Steven Kull, director of the Program on International Policy Attitudes of the University of Maryland comments, "The president is in some trouble with swing voters."

Swing voters were defined as respondents who said they were extremely confident that they would vote in the upcoming election and identified themselves as independents.

Swing voters are more critical of Bush's handling of Iraq than is the general population. While the general public leans toward giving him positive ratings overall (49 percent positive, 33 percent negative) swing voters lean toward giving him negative ratings (38 percent positive, 46 percent negative).

Among swing voters 52 percent said the US government was being misleading and just as many -- 53 percent -- said President Bush was being misleading when they "presented the evidence to justify going to war with Iraq." Among the general public 42 percent said the US government was being misleading and only 36 percent said this was true of President Bush.

Swing voters were far more likely to say that the president knowingly presented evidence that Iraq has sought to buy uranium from an African country he was knowingly presenting false evidence. While 27 percent of the general public said he was knowingly presenting false evidence 43 percent of the swing voters felt that way. A majority of swing voters (52 percent) said that "the fact that the president presented information that was in fact false" lowered their confidence in the president some (34 percent) or a lot (18 percent). Only 40 percent of the general public felt this way.

Asked, "How do you think the process of rebuilding Iraq is going," 72 percent of swing voters said that the operation is going not very well (49 percent) or not at all well (23 percent). This is sharply more negative than the 57 percent of the general public said that the operation is going not very well (44 percent) or not at all well (13 percent). However 82 percent of swing voters say the US must remain in Iraq until it is stable.

Unlike the general public, a slight majority of swing voters say that the war with Iraq was not necessary. In one question 47 percent said the war was necessary while 51 percent said it was not necessary. Among the general public 53 percent said it was necessary, while 44 percent said it was not necessary.

To view the full report and questionnaire, please go to: http://www.pipa.org.

The poll was conducted with a nationwide sample of 1,066 respondents July 11-20. The poll was fielded by Knowledge Networks using its nationwide panel, which is randomly selected from the entire adult population and subsequently provided Internet access. For more information about this methodology, go to http://www.knowledgenetworks.com/ganp.

Funding for this research was provided by the Rockefeller Brothers Fund and the Ford Foundation.