Ballot Measures May Impact Margin of Victory In Tight Races

10/21/2002

From: Kristina Wilfore of Ballot Initiative Strategy Center, 202-299-9522

WASHINGTON, Oct. 21 -- In the scramble for control of both Houses of Congress and several Governorships -- ballot measure campaigns may boost turnout among otherwise unmotivated voters for key races, according to the Ballot Initiatve Strategy Center.

Research shows that the presence and usage of the initiative process is associated with higher voter turnout. The disparity in turnout rates between the 24 initiative and non-initiative states has been increasing over time, estimated at 7-9 percent higher in midterm elections and 3-4.5 percent higher in presidential elections in the 1990s.

"Particularly this year, as most media and political attention is focused on foreign policy, progressive initiatives are forcing debate on critical domestic issues, which may benefit Democrats," says Kristina Wilfore, executive director of the Ballot Initiative Strategy Center. "Ballot initiatives this cycle on issues such as health care reform, fair wages, and class-size reduction are helping to re-center the debate on domestic priorities."

The full analysis of ballot measures and competitive races is available at http://www.ballot.org/pressroom/tightraces.html

Highlights:

-- Several ballot initiatives concerning education have become key issues in statewide races in Florida, Massachusetts and Colorado. An initiative limiting class sizes in public schools in Florida along with instituting universal pre-school have helped define the race for governor. In Colorado, the English-only education measure may bring energized voters to the polls as school districts along with labor, women's and Hispanic groups fight hard against the conservative initiative. In Massachusetts, wealthy Republican businessman Mitt Romney has embraced the English-only question and has used it as a wedge issue in recent television ads to distinguish himself from his opposing gubernatorial candidate Shannon O'Brien.

-- Drug reform and animal rights measures traditionally draw additional liberal voters to the polls. This is likely to be the case in Ohio, Arkansas and Florida. Tom Hagan's (D) support for a drug treatment instead of incarceration initiative just might win him the governorship over incumbent Bob Taft (R) in Ohio. The GOTV efforts of animal rights groups in Arkansas and Florida may affect tight races in those states.

-- Controversy over an increase in the tobacco tax in Arizona and Missouri along with a universal healthcare initiative in Oregon may affect several tight races. These measures have also paved the way for soft money to flow into these states from all sides of the political arena.