Population Reference Bureau Asks 'Why Is the U.S. Population Growing?'

1/16/2003

From: Mark Mather of the Population Reference Bureau, 202-939-5433

WASHINGTON, Jan. 16 -- Why is the U.S. population growing, while the populations of other more developed countries are stagnant or declining? A new publication from the Washington-based Population Reference Bureau examines the forces driving this population growth and reports that the United States is still growing because of net immigration and because Americans have more births than deaths each year.

The 2000 Census revealed that 33 million people were added to the U.S. population during the 1990s -- 7 million more than had been estimated. Current trends suggest that the U.S. population may increase by more than 40 percent by 2050. In comparison, the population is projected to decline by mid-century in Germany, Italy, Japan, and Russia, and to increase less than 30 percent in Australia and Canada.

The report, "What Drives U.S. Population Growth?" deals with the question of why American women have more children than Japanese, Canadian, and European women, even though they share many characteristics associated with lower fertility: high educational attainment and labor force participation and easy access to contraceptives. In 2002, Americans had an average of 2.1 children per couple, while Canadian women had 1.5, Japanese women had 1.3, and Spanish women had 1.2. Without substantial immigration, fewer than two children per couple spells population decline over the long term, because couples are not replacing themselves.

While U.S. blacks and Hispanics have higher fertility than U.S. whites, minority rates do not explain the international gap, because white non-Hispanic American women still have more children than European or Japanese women. Economic factors may play a role. In Europe, high unemployment rates, high housing costs, and other economic barriers may have discouraged many women from having children.

Immigration is one of the most volatile and important sources of U.S. population growth. Immigration is difficult to measure, in part because many foreigners enter the United States and then leave--or they may enter under one type of visa, but then switch to another or gain permanent residency. At least 8.5 million live here illegally.

An unexpectedly large influx of immigrants into the United States and slower flow out of the country fueled the relatively rapid population growth during the 1990s. As these immigrants settle and raise children, they will contribute to further growth in the 21st century. In recent years, foreign-born mothers have produced about one-fifth of U.S. births.

Authors Mary Kent and Mark Mather, of the Population Reference Bureau, also point out that infant mortality is higher in the United States than in many other industrialized countries, and that many Americans die from preventable causes. Infant and childhood mortality could be reduced with more comprehensive health care and better living conditions for children and pregnant women.

"What Drives U.S. Population Growth?" is the latest issue in the Population Reference Bureau's Population Bulletin series. The report is also available on PRB's website: http://www.prb.org. Or contact Ellen Carnevale, director of communications, Population Reference Bureau; phone: 202-939-5407; e-mail: ecarnevale@prb.org.

The Population Reference Bureau is the leader in providing timely and objective information on U.S. and international population trends and their implications. PRB is a nonprofit population research organization in Washington, D.C.