New EBRI Research: Continuing Current Trend Would See 46 Million Americans Under 65 Uninsured by 2005

12/13/2002

From: Jim Jaffe, 202-775-6353, jaffe@ebri.org, or Paul Fronstin, 202-775-6352, fronstin@ebri.org, both of the Employee Benefit Research Institute

WASHINGTON, Dec. 13 -- If current broad economic trends and the rising cost of health insurance both continue, the number of Americans under 65 who lack health insurance could rise to 46 million by 2005, an increase from the 40.9 million reported in 2001, according to a new analysis from the Employee Benefit Research Institute.

While the percentage uninsured increased last year to 16.5 percent, it remained below the modern peak of 17 percent reached in 1998. If the 46 million figure is reached in 2005, that would represent 18 percent of the population. In 1987, 13.7 percent of this population lacked insurance.

The pattern of coverage varies substantially. In three states - Texas, Louisiana and New Mexico, more than twenty percent of citizens are uninsured. More than half of the non-citizen population lacks insurance in North Carolina, Tennessee, Oklahoma, Texas, New Mexico and Oregon. In five states (Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Wisconsin, Minnesota and Iowa), less than 10 percent of citizens were uninsured.

The December EBRI Issue Brief, "Sources of Health Insurance and Characteristics of the Uninsured: Analysis of the March 2002 Current Population Survey," addresses the continuing problem of rising premiums for employment-based health insurance during a time of economic stress. It analyzes 2001 data from the Current Population Survey released earlier this year. It notes that job-based health insurance has generally tracked the economy, increasing during the boom years of the late 1990s and subsequently declining. In 1987, 70.1 percent of non-old Americans had job-related health insurance coverage. Last year, this figure declined to 65.6 percent. During the same period, the segment of the population covered by public programs rose from 13.4 percent to 15.3 percent. The largest such program, Medicaid, provides protection to more than 28 million Americans.

Data shows that 16.4 million non-elderly Americans individually purchased health insurance, an increase of 300,000 from the prior year. In 1993 17.5 million members of this group purchased individual policies.

The combination of rising premiums and a slack economy have had a clear, negative impact on health insurance coverage," said EBRI President and CEO Dallas Salisbury. He noted that employers were seeking innovative ways limit their health benefit costs.