New Report Finds Demographic Clues to Risk of Civil Conflicts; Findings Could Help Predict and Prevent Wars

12/17/2003

From: Karyn L. Beach, 202-557-3419 or kbeach@popact.org, or Mark Daley, 202-557-3446 or mdaley@popact.org, both of Population Action International

WASHINGTON, Dec. 17 -- High proportions of young adults, rapidly growing cities, scarcities of cropland and water, and HIV/AIDS prevalence may contribute significantly to the risk of deadly civil conflict, according to a new report from Population Action International (PAI). Among the implications of these findings is that sound population policies, centered around provision of reproductive health services for all who want them, can play an important role in advancing global security.

The Security Demographic: Population and Civil Conflict After the Cold War builds on 25 years of existing scholarly research and examines 180 countries. The report finds that nations such as Costa Rica, Thailand and Tunisia -- that have gone through the transition from short lives and large families to longer lives and smaller families, a process known as the "demographic transition" -- are less vulnerable to civil conflict. Nations such as Afghanistan, Ethiopia, and Nepal, with disproportionately high numbers of young adults, rapidly growing cities, and cropland and water scarcities, are more vulnerable to civil conflict. The probable contribution of high HIV/AIDS death rates to the risk of conflicts is also examined.

"Our report brings new ideas to the table about how to make the world a more peaceful and secure place," says PAI President and CEO Amy Coen. "Investment in the developing world -- particularly in access to reproductive health care for couples, and in education and economic opportunities for women and girls - - saves and improves millions of lives. Our report suggests that this same investment may deliver another valuable dividend: nations that are less prone to conflict."

The report's analysis finds that sub-Saharan Africa faces the greatest risk of civil unrest in the coming decade, followed by the Middle East and parts of southern Asia. In many of these regions, girls still lag significantly behind boys in educational attainment, women have limited chances to work outside the home, and reproductive health services and information are often inaccessible or unavailable.

"Events of the past two years have made the connection between the security of our own nation and social progress in developing countries painfully apparent," notes PAI's Senior Research Associate and the report's lead author Dr. Richard Cincotta. "We find that each step from high birth rates and death rates to low ones tends to be followed by a comparable decline in the vulnerability to civil war. This should be of keen interest to policymakers. It suggests that policies promoting small, healthy and better educated families and longer lives in key developing countries will encourage political stability and global security."

The report urges members of the international military, intelligence and diplomatic communities to use their influence to promote demographic transition; facilitate better access to reproductive health services for refugees, civilians in post- conflict environments, and all military personnel; and support improvements in the legal, educational and economic status of women.

The report suggests that members of the international military, intelligence and diplomatic communities could help to:

-- Articulate for policymakers the relationships between population dynamics and armed conflict.

-- Help secure funding for programs in family planning, girls' education, maternal and child health and HIV/AIDS prevention and treatment, all of which encourage lower birth and death rates in countries still advancing through the demographic transition.

-- Support and implement policies that assure that reproductive health care of a high standard -- including comprehensive contraceptive information and services, prevention of sexually transmitted diseases, and maternal and child health care -- is available to all military personnel under all circumstances.

-- Encourage women to work in government and seek political office and to participate in conflict prevention and post- conflict negotiations. Their contributions in these and similar positions can model broader impro@Yhants in women's participation and status, which among their other benefits will encourage demographic transition and ultimately lower the risk of strife.

"There are many benefits to societies in shifting toward lower rates of both birth and death, but the idea that the demographic transition could actually reduce the risk of violent civil conflict is new to the security community," said Robert Engelman, vice president for research at PAI and a co-author of the report.

"We were surprised by the strength and consistency we found in the associations between population dynamics and civil conflict in the last decades of the 20th century. We're predicting these associations will be evident in the first decades of the 21st as well, and that in countries where demographic transition moves into its final stages, new conflicts will be less likely to emerge than in the past. That's a powerful concept for the future of global security in a frightfully uncertain world."