Criminology & Public Policy Study: Effects of Three Strikes Legislation

7/23/2002

From: Natasha Frost of Criminology & Public Policy 212-237-8988 or cpp@jjay.cuny.edu

WASHINGTON, July 23 -- Two separate studies examining the potential side effects of three strikes legislation appear this month in the July 2002 issue of Criminology & Public Policy. The first study, "Selective Incapacitation, Three Strikes, and the Problem of Aging Prison Populations: Using Simulation Modeling to See the Future," finds California's Three Strikes law will not alone significantly impact the elderly prison population in that state. The second study, "Unintended Consequences of Politically Popular Sentencing Policy: The Homicide Promoting Effects of 'Three Strikes' in U.S. Cities (1980-1999)" finds an increased homicide rate associated with the adoption of three strikes legislation.

Using statistical models to project the California prison population into the future, Temple University researcher, Kathleen Auerhahn, concludes that California's Three Strikes law "will not accelerate the rate of growth of the elderly prison population" in that state over the next 30 years. While the study suggests that the three-strikes law will have a negligible impact, the author points out that the cumulative effect of 'get tough' sentencing reforms enacted since the 1970's has been a large increase in the prison population. Auerhahn suggests we can expect to see a steady yet proportional increase in the elderly prison population. Elderly prisoners are a concern because as Auerhahn points out, "these (elderly) prisoners will strain criminal justice system resources while presenting little public safety threat."

A second study published in the same issue of Criminology & Public Policy finds that increased homicide rates may be an unintended consequence of three strikes legislation. University of Alabama at Birmingham researchers Tomislav V. Kovandzic, John J. Sloan III, and Lynne M. Vieraitis utilize panel data from 188 US cities to examine the possible "homicide promoting effects of three strikes laws." Kovandzic et al. find that "cities in states with three-strikes laws experienced short term increases in homicide rates of 13 percent to14 percent and long-term increases of 16 percent to 24 percent compared with cities in states without the laws." Their study, which confirms earlier research conducted by Thomas Marvell and Carlisle Moody, adds support to the claim that three strikes legislation might actually promote homicide. The authors note that these findings are a prime example of unintended negative consequences derived directly from legislative policy.

The authors of both studies emphasize the need for policy makers to fully consider both the intended and unintended consequences of sentencing reforms before enacting them into law.