Public and Elites Differ Sharply on Immigration; Poll: People Deeply Anxious, While Nation's Leaders Remain Unconcerned

12/17/2002

From: Roy Beck, 703-816-8820 or roy@numbersusa.com Steven Camarota, 202-466-8185 or sac@cis.org both of the Center for Immigration Studies

WASHINGTON, Dec. 16 -- An analysis from the Center for Immigration Studies finds compelling evidence that an enormous gap exists between the American people and opinion leaders on the issue of immigration a gap that seems to be increasing.

The CIS Backgrounder, "Elite vs. Public Opinion: An Examination of Divergent Views on Immigration," is the first to examine in detail the differences between public and elite opinion on the issue of immigration. The report is based on data from a recent survey on foreign policy issues conducted by the Chicago Council on Foreign Relations. The survey, taken in May through July of this year, was based on 2,800 interviews of ordinary Americans and a cross-section of 400 "opinion leaders," including members of Congress, the administration, church leaders, business executives, union leaders, journalists, academics, and leaders of major interest groups.

The CIS report, authored by Roy Beck, Executive Director of NumbersUSA Education and Research Foundation, and Steven Camarota, Director of Research at the Center for Immigration Studies, is on line at http://www.cis.org/articles/2002/back1402.html.

Among the findings in the report:

-- The gap between the opinions of the American people and their leaders on immigration is enormous. The poll found that 60 percent of the public regards the present level of immigration to be a "critical threat to the vital interests of the United States," compared to only 14 percent of the nation s leadership a 46 percentage-point gap.

-- The current gap is even wider than the 37 percentage-point difference found in 1998, when 55 percent of the public viewed immigration as a "critical threat," compared to 18 percent of opinion leaders then.

-- The poll results indicate that there is no other foreign policy-related issue on which the American people and their leaders disagreed more profoundly than immigration. Even on such divisive issues as globalization or strengthening the United Nations, the public and the elite are much closer together than they are on immigration.

-- The enormous difference between elite and public opinion can also be seen on the specific issue of illegal immigration. The survey found that 70 percent of the public said that reducing illegal immigration should be a "very important" foreign-policy goal of the United States, compared to only 22 percent of those in the elite.

Co-author Roy Beck noted that the poll s findings indicate that "continued deep public dissatisfaction with current immigration policy indicates that this is an issue just waiting for a candidate to champion it and thereby reap a significant political benefit." The is especially true, he said, because, "it could be marketed as anti-elite and more in sync with the American people, a message that has traditionally been well received by voters."

Steven Camarota, the other co-author, pointed out that, "The very large difference between the elite and public opinion makes what has transpired on immigration in recent years much more understandable. It explains why border enforcement increased in the 1990s, but at the same time, enforcement within the United States was phased out. More recently it explains why broad interest group support for an illegal alien amnesty, including the business community and labor unions, has not translated into the passage of an amnesty."

Among other findings in the report:

-- President Bush s efforts to grant amnesty to illegal immigrants appears to be hurting him politically. While 53 percent of the public said his handling of foreign policy overall was excellent or good, on immigration only 27 percent said his handling of immigration was good or excellent.

-- When asked a specific question about whether legal immigration should be reduced, kept the same, or increased, 55 percent of the public said it should be reduced, and 27 percent said it should remain the same. In contrast, only 18 percent of opinion leaders said it should be reduced, and 60 percent said it should remain the same. It appears that there was no other issue specific question on which the public and elites differed more widely.

-- A significant discrepancy also exists with respect to illegal immigration, as when respondents were asked an open ended question "What are the biggest foreign policy problems?" The public ranked illegal immigration sixth of 69 concerns, while elites ranked it twenty-sixth.

Why do the public and elites differ? It is not entirely clear why the public and nation s leaders have such different views on immigration. Other areas in which the public and elites disagree are those dealing with protecting the jobs of American workers and economic competition from other countries. This strongly suggests that one of the main reasons ordinary Americans are concerned about immigration is that they fear job competition. Opinion leaders on the other hand are overwhelmingly educated, and compared to the public much more affluent. Thus at least part of the reason for the difference of opinion stems of the class interests of the two groups. However, the huge difference between the public and opinion leaders on the issue is clearly an important social phenomenon in need of further exploration. What we can say from this data is that the gap is large, persistent over time, and seems to be growing.

The complete results of the Chicago Council on Foreign Relations survey can be found at http://www.worldviews.org/detailreports/usreport/html/ch5s5.ht ml.