Planned Parenthood Iowa Poll of January 2000 Democratic Caucus-Goers Finds Virtual Three-Way Dead Heat

7/2/2003

From: Doug Curry, 202-628-7772 Kendall Dillon of the Freedom Fund of Planned Parenthood of Greater Iowa, 515-249-6084 Jim Farrell of Planned Parenthood, 202-973-4880

WASHINGTON, July 2 -- A Planned Parenthood poll of January 2000 Iowa Democratic Caucus attendees released today found that the contest among Democratic presidential candidates is extremely close and could be influenced significantly by a few key issues.

U.S. Representative Dick Gephardt, former Vermont Governor Howard Dean and U.S. Senator John Kerry lead the pack of nine candidates, but two-thirds of those polled say they could change their minds.

Poll results can be found at http://www.harstadresearch.com.

Respondents cited deep discontent, in findings released yesterday, with a number of Bush administration policies on family planning and reproductive health care.

+ACI-These results present an opportunity for Democratic candidates to distinguish themselves from the pack by taking advantage of the strong feelings that Iowa Democratic caucus-goers have about the record of this administration on Planned Parenthood's core issues,+ACI- said Jill June, president and CEO of Planned Parenthood of Greater Iowa.

Respondents were asked, +ACI-thinking ahead to the 2004 presidential election, if you were asked to choose your first choice among the Democratic candidates for president today, which one of the following nine Democrats would you vote for?+ACI- All nine candidates' names were provided in random order.

+ACI-This survey clearly shows that the Iowa Democratic Caucuses are wide open and totally up for grabs,+ACI- said Paul Harstad, CEO of Harstad Strategic Research. +ACI-The two-thirds of Democrats who can be persuaded to support another candidate, along with the one-fifth who are undecided show that any candidate can either win in Iowa or exceed expectations.+ACI-

Paul Harstad and Harstad Strategic Research have been pollster and strategist for both U.S. Senator Tom Harkin of Iowa (since 1983) and Iowa Governor Tom Vilsack (since 1997), helping both first gain statewide office.

Among the January 2000 Democratic caucus-goers (328) surveyed, the top choices included Gephardt at 21 percent, Dean at 20 percent and Kerry at 18 percent.

The full survey was conducted of 611 random telephone interviews of registered Democrats and Independents who participated in any Iowa Democratic caucus between 1984 and 2000. In those surveyed, the top choices were Gephardt at 25 percent, Dean at 15 percent, Kerry at 15 percent and Lieberman at 11 percent.

Interviews were conducted from June 16 to 24, 2003. The sample of 611 had a margin of error of 5.6 percent, while the 328 sample of January 2000 Democratic caucus-goers had a margin of error of 5.4 percent.