Texas Politics Survey: Gov. Perry Shows Weakness on Some Issues

8/16/2002

From: Jeff Montgomery of Montgomery & Associates, 512-478-0002

AUSTIN, Texas, Aug. 16 -- Voters are beginning to show some doubt about incumbent Republican Gov. Rick Perry's ability to lead on certain issues, according to a recent statewide survey.

This Texas Politics survey is the fifth in a year-long series of surveys addressing the 2002 Texas elections and launched by Montgomery and Associates, an independent research firm based in Austin, Texas. This survey was conducted from July 31-August 8, 2002 and tested 1,152 Texas residents who had voted in at least one of the last two general elections. The margin of error is plus or minus 3 percent. Montgomery & Associates is conducting the survey independently, and has not been paid by any candidate or party.

In a trial heat between Gov. Perry and businessman Tony Sanchez, Gov. Perry took 52.5 percent of the statewide vote, compared to 40 percent for Sanchez. That is only half of the 25-point lead the governor held in May.

The survey also asked voters to say which of the two candidates would do a better job on various statewide issues. "On four of these issues, Gov. Perry had a lead commensurate with his lead in the trial heat," said Jeff Montgomery, president of Montgomery & Associates.

By about eight points, respondents chose Gov. Perry as the candidate more likely to do a better job on education and creating jobs. And by 15 and 13 points, respectively, respondents said the governor was more likely to do a better job on the budget shortfall and "providing leadership and vision."

"Those are the numbers we would expect with the lead he is currently holding," Montgomery said.

But on two other key issues, the governor's lead dropped sharply. On health care and "better regulation of insurance companies," respondents chose the governor as likely to do a better job by only 4.5 and 4.4 points, respectively. (On health care, 46.9 percent said Perry would do a better job, and 42.4 percent said Sanchez would. On regulating insurance companies, 44.4 percent said Perry would do a better job and 40 percent said Sanchez would. The rest said it would depend or had no opinion.)

In a different question, respondents named education, health care, and regulation of insurance companies as the top three issues facing the state. "Sanchez is now very close to the governor on two of the top three issues," Montgomery said. "If this race turns on the question of leadership, that will help Gov. Perry. But if voters walk into the voting booth thinking about insurance and health care issues, that could pose serious problems for Gov. Perry."