Survey Shows Informed Americans See Iraq as a Threat, Support Response Through Multilateral Organizations

1/13/2003

From: Julia Sutherland of Public Strategies, Inc., 703-408-2570

WASHINGTON, Jan. 13 -- According to a Deliberative Opinion Poll(r) concluded over the weekend, an informed American citizenry was more likely to see Iraq as a threat -- but they wished to deal with that threat only within the framework of multilateral institutions such as the United Nations Security Council.

Eighty-seven percent ranked Iraq as a threat, compared to 74 percent of the control group, a separate survey of citizens who did not deliberate, and less than a majority -- 46 percent -- wanted to shift from Iraq to a focus on terrorism, compared to 57 percent of the control group.

More generally, the Deliberative Poll participants were more willing to take some responsibility for addressing problems abroad -- ranging from military security, to economic privation, the promotion of democracy or the environment. There was a move from 63 percent to 86 percent in those who disagreed with the statement, "This country would be better off if we just stayed home and did not concern ourselves with problems in other areas of the world." And in another question that asked whether "it is the job of the U.S. as a global leader to protect the world from countries that are likely to use weapons of mass destruction," 55 percent of the participants initially agreed, but 69 percent agreed after the Deliberative Poll.

When asked whether the country should deal with world hunger or AIDS or deal with problems at home first, the percentage choosing the latter went down dramatically. The percentage choosing problems at home over dealing with world hunger went down from 53 percent to 29 percent and the percentage choosing problems at home over dealing with AIDS in developing countries declined from 50 percent to 20 percent. The percentage who opposed promoting democracy abroad went down from 38 percent to 23 percent.

These are just some of the findings from a Deliberative Opinion Poll(r) and National Issues Convention conducted in Philadelphia this weekend with 344 randomly selected citizen-delegates from across the country. The poll and convention kicked off "By the People: America in the World," a 16-month program hosted by MacNeil/Lehrer Productions to help Americans better understand how they see themselves in relation to the rest of the world and to stimulate discussion of the country's role in world events. The goal of the program is to initiate a continuous, informed public dialogue on international affairs that will be continued in communities and around the country.

Before the weekend began, delegates were polled on a wide range of issues including Iraq, international trade, world health issues and military involvement abroad. Then, the delegates spent the weekend deliberating these same issues, debating and interacting with experts in the field. Using the discussion guide, "By the People: America's Role in the World," the citizen-delegates participated in small group discussions, facilitated by nonpartisan moderators from the National Issues Forums (NIF). At the conclusion of the convention, delegates were polled again to determine if their ideas on the issues had shifted after engaging in democratic dialogue and receiving additional information.

The weekend culminated in a live two-hour television show hosted by The NewsHour's Jim Lehrer. The final event also featured Ambassador Richard Haass, Director of Policy Planning at the U.S. Department of State, and Zbigniew Brzezinski, former National Security Advisor and Professor of American Foreign Policy at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies.

"We had two goals for the Philadelphia weekend. First, to provide an opportunity for a national conversation through the representative sample and then share that dialogue with public television viewers," said Dan Werner, executive producer of the By the People broadcast and president of MacNeil/Lehrer Productions. "The Philadelphia weekend and broadcast underscore the substantive as well as ratifying contributions citizens bring to the national conversation about foreign affairs."

On the question of foreign aid, initially, more Deliberative Poll participants wanted to reduce spending on foreign aid than wanted to increase it. However, by the final interview, an absolute majority wanted to increase foreign aid. The percentage wanting to increase U.S. foreign aid went from 20 percent in the initial poll to 53 percent in the final poll.

The participants became more informed and this clearly was connected to their changed views. Initially, only 19 percent of the participants correctly answered that U.S. spending on foreign aid was less than 1 percent of the federal budget, but 64 percent of them made the correct choice right after deliberating, for a dramatic 45 percent increase. Once they realized the amount currently being spent on foreign aid, many participants saw it as desirable to spend more. On nine knowledge items, the average increase was 12 points.

"It's remarkable that the delegates could become both more concerned about the threat Iraq poses, and more convinced that the only acceptable way to deal with that threat is through multilateral action," said James Fishkin, creator of the Deliberative Opinion Poll(r), which tracks whether people change their opinions after being exposed to dialogue and information on a certain topic.

"It appears that the delegates, after thinking about it and discussing it, converged to a greater degree on a particular, nuanced understanding of the Iraq situation: that Iraq poses a serious threat, but that we should only invade if the inspectors find evidence that convinces the United Nations Security Council to act," Fishkin said.

Conventionally calculated, the "margin of error" for items expressed in percentages in the participant sample is about 5.4 percent. In comparisons of participants with non-participants, it is about 6.8 percent. That said, the actual margin of error varies from question to question and is generally lower. The real test is whether given differences and changes are statistically significant; few of the contrasts between participants and non-participants but many of the changes from pre- to post-deliberation are statistically significant.

The "control group" was a telephone survey with a national random sample of 612 adult citizens completed Jan. 10. It was conducted by the Center for Policy Attitudes under the direction of Dr. Steven Kull with support from the Renee B. Fisher Foundation.

NIF is a nonpartisan, nationwide network of civic and educational organizations that convene local public forums. NIF forums do not advocate a specific solution or point of view. Rather, these forums offer citizens the opportunity to deliberate on complex public policy issues, exchange ideas and experiences with one another, and make more thoughtful and informed decisions.

The Kettering Foundation, a nonprofit, nonpartisan research institute located in Dayton, Ohio was founded in 1927. The foundation has provided background materials and moderator training for the National Issues Forums since the nationwide network was established in 1982. It engages in a wide range of activities to promote civic participation and enrich public life.

The delegates participating in the National Issues Convention are a representative sample of the eligible U.S. voting population. In addition to closely matching the population in age, education and sex, the participant sample has the same regional, ethnic, racial and occupational diversity as the United States. The delegate sample also has the same diversity in work status, military service, religious belief and religious attendance and union membership.

"By The People" received initial funding from the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation, the Public Broadcasting System and the Corporation for Public Broadcasting Foundation.

MacNeil/Lehrer Productions is working with local PBS stations throughout the country and with additional alliance organizations to help extend the "By The People" effort into local communities across America. Those alliance organizations are the American Library Association, City Cares, the General Federation of Women's Clubs, the Federation of State Humanities Councils, Kiwanis International, the League of Women Voters, the National Black Chamber of Commerce and the World Affairs Councils of America.

Formed in 1981, MacNeil/Lehrer Productions (M/LP) produces the nightly PBS broadcast, "The NewsHour with Jim Lehrer" and publishes the "Online NewsHour" web site, which includes "Online NewsHour Extra," a web site for high school students. In 2000, M/LP produced PBS's coverage of the Republican and Democratic National Conventions. In 2001, M/LP launched a series of portraits of modern first ladies with "Lady Bird," a biography of Mrs. Lyndon Johnson.

Web site, for more information: http://www.pbs.org/newshour/btp.