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HURRICANE PERFORMANCE AN ACCURATE READ BY NOAA FORECASTERS

November 7, 2001 — With Hurricane Michelle heading out to sea after battering Cuba and the Bahama Islands, meteorologists at NOAA's National Hurricane Center are noting the storm as one of the most accurately forecast tropical events in the Miami center's history. (Click NOAA satellite image for larger view of Hurricane Michelle taken Nov. 6, 2001 at 10:15 a.m. EST.)

"Even though Hurricane Michelle was erratic at times, the storm performed almost exactly as our forecasters and one computer model consistently predicted, " said Max Mayfield, director of NOAA's National Hurricane Center. "Accurately predicting its movement and intensity was a great asset to emergency mangers, business and industry, and others preparing for this storm."

From its formation in the Caribbean Sea on October 29, the late-season storm had monstrous potential. Drawing strength from the warm tropical waters, Michelle topped out at Category 4 on the 1 to 5 Saffir-Simpson hurricane intensity scale with sustained winds of 135 mph. It made a direct hit on Cuba six days later, becoming the island's worst hurricane since 1952.

With the Florida Keys evacuating in the face of hurricane-force winds, heavy surf, and four-foot storm surge, the rest of Florida drew a sigh of relief as hurricane center forecasters took the storm northeast through the Bahamas and out to sea.

"As with many hurricanes, a slight change in direction would have brought Michelle right into the mainland U.S. and even the Gulf of Mexico," Mayfield explained. "By accurately forecasting the storm to move just to our south, we spared many communities the great expense and hardship of large-scale evacuation".

The hurricane expert added, "Without the sophisticated hurricane tracking capabilities of the 21st century, Michelle's close passage to southern Florida would have spurred massive—but unnecessary—evacuations."

The November hurricane brought a flurry of activity to the National Hurricane Center as emergency managers, media, and other storm trackers converged on the NOAA facility. Satellite images, complex computer models, and data collected from hurricane hunting aircraft were but a few tools of the trade employed by the center's highly specialized meteorologists. Television cameras provided a steady stream of expert interviews to an anxious world while timely forecast data buzzed across the Internet and other high-tech communication hubs.

One of NOAA's disaster response partners, the Federal Emergency Management Agency, set up shop at the hurricane center, as did Billy Wagner, a fixture in the Florida Keys emergency management community. "We had assistance across the boards," Mayfield notes. "This hurricane was a team effort from every perspective and echelon".

Hurricane Michelle also marked the success of another Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook, produced by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center and partners at NOAA's Hurricane Research Division and National Hurricane Center. "This marks the fourth consecutive success since its inception," said James Laver, acting director of the Climate Prediction Center.

In August, after only two tropical storms at the start of the peak period, NOAA's hurricane forecasters increased this year's prediction from "normal" to "normal-to-slightly-above-normal" activity for the rest of the 2001 Atlantic hurricane season.

"Beginning with tropical storm Allison, this year's Atlantic hurricane season has been anything but quiet," said lead climate specialist Dr. Gerald Bell. He added, "including Hurricane Noel, the 2001 Atlantic hurricane season tallied 14 named storms, eight hurricanes, and four major hurricanes and the season is not over yet."

The Atlantic hurricane season ends on November 30.

Relevant Web Sites
NOAA's National Hurricane Center — Get the latest advisories here

NOAA's Experimental GIS Based Tracking Map

NOAA UPS HURRICANE FORECAST A NOTCH AS PEAK SEASON BEGINS

NOAA's Tropical Cyclone Links

Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale

NOAA's Southeast River Forecast Center

NOAA Satellite Images — The latest satellite views

Colorized Satellite Images

NOAA 3-D Satellite Images

NOAA's Hurricanes Page

NOAA's Storm Watch — Get the latest severe weather information across the USA

Media Contact:
Frank Lepore, NOAA's National Hurricane Center, (305) 229-4404

 

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