TWO NEW FIRES IN WEST AS FORECASTERS PREDICT AREA WILL DRY OUT AND WARM UP THIS WEEK
NOAA Monitoring Long Term Drought Conditions as Fire Season Continues

September 18, 2001 — Two new large fires were reported, one each in Washington and California, last weekend bringing the total to five active large fires across the country. Hundreds of new small fires continue to be reported, according to NOAA's National Weather Service. (Click NOAA image to see latest drought assessment.)

Nearly 200 new fires were reported from almost every western state in recent days. Containment was reached last weekend on two other large fires in the southern California area. Washington state has two fires while wildland firefighters in California, Idaho and Montana are each fighting one major fire in their state. The national preparedness level is two on a scale from one to five.

National Weather Service Forecast Offices across the country provide spot forecasts as the new small fires erupt. For example, in Spokane, Wash., the NWS has kept the local land management agencies well briefed since a renewed and intensified fire outbreak started around noon on Sunday, Sept. 16.

According to Gary Bennett at the NWS Spokane office, "Our area experienced a significant lightning event with multiple fire starts. The land management agencies are in initial attack mode and we are busy supporting them with spot forecasts. The next day or so will be critical in suppressing these small fires so they don't grow into extended attack fires."

Wildfire Season Remains Below Average Acres Burned To Date
The wildfire season continues to burn acreage at levels below the ten year average. As of Sept. 17, the National Interagency Fire Center in Boise, Idaho reported about 3 million acres have been charred which compares to the 10-year average of 3.4 million acres.

According to Larry Van Bussum, NOAA's National Weather Service staff meteorologist at the NIFC, "There is still very high to extreme fire potential indices in many states."

Van Bussum added, "We're very cautious at this time of the year. We carefully monitor conditions such as winds, temperature changes, and precipitation activity. All of these things could work against the firefighters. When you have already dry conditions, and then add some of the wind and heating conditions we are expecting later this week, it could be trouble for some areas."

He said extreme fire indices are currently being reported in Arizona, California, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, Oregon, Utah, Washington and Wyoming.

Current Weather Situation from the National Weather Service
Van Bussum said the National Weather Service is predicting the West will dry out and warm up this week as a trough of low pressure moves east out of the area and towards the eastern United States.

"Some scattered showers or thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon, will persist across the Great Basin and Northern Rockies, but activity will diminish as a ridge of high pressure builds into the area through midweek. Windy conditions will develop toward midweek and the end of the week over the Pacific Northwest as another trough approaches the Pacific Northwest."Van Bussum said.

Drought Continues as Part of NOAA's Weekly Threats Assessment and Seasonal Outlooks
For Monday, Sept. 17 through Tuesday, Sept. 25, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center says long-term drought will persist over much of the West; firefighting efforts can expect somewhat cooler temperatures, but probably not much in the way of precipitation. Drought is likely to persist in western Texas and parts of Oklahoma, as forecast rain amounts are light. Recent heavy rains ended drought across much of east Texas.

NOAA's Latest Seasonal Assessment
Seasonal rains, mountain snows, and lower temperatures will improve soil moisture during the next several months in the Northwest and other parts of the West affected by drought, but hydrological drought, as reflected in low water supplies, will likely persist at least until next spring.

The Important Job of the NWS Incident Meteorologists
NWS meteorologists play a vital role in supporting efforts to control wildfires that rage across the United States each year. The NWS forecasters provide information to land management officials and operate from their regular locations in the 122 forecast offices across the nation. Depending on the conditions and requests, NWS staff are also deployed to intra-agency Geographic Area Coordinating Centers where they work side-by-side with other agencies who are supporting multiple fires in a given area.

NWS also has a small group of experienced fire weather forecasters—approximately 50 nationwide—known as Incident Meteorologists or IMETs. Every year, IMETS are deployed to support hundreds of fires nationwide. There is currently one NWS Incident Meteorologist assigned to a fire in California.

Once a fire starts, up-to-date weather information becomes especially critical. Weather and fuels are key ingredients in fire behavior. Accurate forecasts of wind direction and speed strongly influence fire strategy and help incident commanders make the best possible decisions to control wildfires. IMETs are specially trained in mesoscale and microscale meteorology and employ a variety of special tools to prepare the forecast that contributes to the safety of all personnel involved in the management of fires.

Relevant Web Sites
Updated forecast information is available on the home pages of local National Weather Service offices. These pages are organized by geographic regions of the country.

NOAA's Fire Weather Information Center

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center's Seasonal Outlooks

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center's Drought Assessment

NOAA's Drought Information Center

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center's USA Threat Assessments

For additional information on the NOAA's Fire Weather Program, please visit NOAA's National Fire Forecasts, Offices and Outlooks, Boise, Idaho.

NOAA's Western U.S. Wildfires Summary — Includes maps

Latest NOAA Satellite Images of Fires

NOAA's NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTERS PROVIDE CRITICAL SUPPORT TO WILDFIRE MANAGEMENT

All About Wild Fires

NOAA's Fire Weather Program (Describes wild fire weather terms)

Fire Weather Forecasts from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma

National Interagency Fire Center — Includes latest news and glossary of wildfire terms

Media Contact:
Marilu Trainor, NOAA's National Weather Service Western Region, (801) 524-5692 ext. 226 or Carmeyia Gillis, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, (301) 763-8000 ext. 7163

 

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