NOAA: MIDWEST "NOT OUT OF THE WOODS" FOR MAJOR FLOODING
New River Forecast Technology Making A Difference

April 13, 2001 — While only light precipitation is forecast through Tuesday, NOAA's National Weather Service, said this week's rainfall, which has already pushed several rivers above flood stage, is still enough to bring major flooding through next week to the Dakotas and Minnesota.

"The rain, combined with melting snow, has created quite an unusual event [in the Midwest]," said Kenneth King, head of hydrologic services for the weather service's central region. "Although the rain has slowed down, we are not out of the woods yet."

A storm system dropped up to an inch of rain across much of the region Wednesday and Thursday. Light precipitation is forecast through Tuesday but is not expected to add to the already grim flood-crest projections. King warned residents not to hinge their safety on crest predictions alone.

"The crest is only one part of the flood forecast," King said. "The crest, or highest point, indicates that the waters have peaked. The danger and disaster from a flood often takes place long before it reaches the crest."

For example, King said, the Red River of the North already is flooded from Wahpeton to Pembina, N.D., and Breckenridge, Minn. A crest of 10 feet above flood stage is expected for Sunday. Forecasters said crests up to 20 feet above flood stage are possible for areas downstream during the next two weeks.

In Grand Forks, the Red River is expected to crest about seven feet below the 54.35 foot record set in 1997. Flood waters are forcing some residents in southeast Grand Forks to use boats to reach their homes. Just north of Fargo, N.D., flood waters are creeping onto the I-29 highway, and flood water has risen to the shoulder along Highway 14.

The entire length of the Minnesota River will flood, forecasters said, with a crest eight feet above flood stage at Montevideo in Minnesota on Sunday. Downstream, Savage, Minn., is forecast to reach 17 feet above flood stage. The Mississippi River is projected to flood as far south as Chester, Ill., bringing significant flooding to nearby communities.

New Forecast Technology Is Baptized by Fire

In January 2001, the Grand Forks weather office began using the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service, a new, Web-based suite of information tools that provides more detailed river forecasts from hours, days and weeks in advance of floods. The AHPS outlook in January indicated the possibility of major flooding in the Midwest—and provided advanced information forecasters didn't have before the historic floods in 1997 and 1993.

AHPS' visual displays and information are developed at National Weather Service River Forecast Centers, which gather data using technology from geostationary satellites, Doppler radar, weather observation stations and the award-winning Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System.

The advanced lead time, according to city officials, is making a difference in their preparation and mitigation efforts.

Kevin Dean, the public information officer for the city of Grand Forks, said, "The cooperation we [Grand Forks officials] are receiving from the weather service is essential in planning the overall flood fight. The communication, coordination and cooperation between the agencies has been absolutely perfect in helping us to prepare the best flood fight plan we can."

Throughout the Midwest, NWS offices are coordinating with local officials, including the Corps of Engineers, the U.S. Geological Survey and state and county agencies to provide the latest information about how to best battle the flood—whether by adding to the height of levees, or sandbagging in certain areas.

"Our Aberdeen and Sioux Falls [South Dakota] offices have been coordinating directly with the South Dakota Governor's Office, State Emergency Management and the National Guard," King said.

Relevant Web Sites
Updated information on the flood and weather forecasts for the affected areas may be found on the following NOAA Web sites for the respective weather service forecast offices.

Grand Forks, N.D.

Minneapolis, Minn.

Aberdeen, S.D.

Sioux Falls, S.D.

NOAA's National Weather Service Central Region

NOAA's Hydrologic Information Center

River Conditions from NOAA's Hydrologic Information Center — includes national graphic

NOAA's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Services

NOAA's Flooding Page

NOAA's River Forecast Centers

Media Contacts:
Patrick Slattery, NOAA's National Weather Service Central Region, (816) 426-7621, ext. 621 or John Leslie, NOAA's National Weather Service, (301) 713-0622

 

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