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ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICES: INFORMATION FOR A STRONGER AND SAFER AMERICA
March 15, 2001 — Each year, floods kill more people than any other form of severe weather, and cause damages in excess of $3.5 billion. Three-quarters of all presidentially declared disasters are the result of flooding. Clearly, hydrologic forecasting is critical to public safety and the economy.
National implementation of the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Services (AHPS) will save lives and an estimated $200 million per year in flood losses, and and will contribute an additional $400 million per year in economic benefits to water resource users.
AHPS will significantly improve river forecasts and management in the United States by providing a fourteen-day outlook and new forecast formats, including visual displays, which will assist local managers in making decisions on water management. The system includes a combination of software and hardware tools used to analyze data and create graphical displays of probability forecasts.
AHPS Helps the General Public
AHPS provides the public with more river forecast information such as:
- how high the river will rise
- when the river will reach its peak
- where property will be flooded
- how long flooding will continue
- how long a drought will last
AHPS Helps Water Managers and City Officials
AHPS provides better information to water managers and city officials, helping them to make decisions such as:
- when and where to evacuate people from potential flood areas, thus saving more lives;
- when to move goods and industrial property from flooded areas, thus contributing to economic savings;
- how to utilize reservoir storage capacity to reduce flood impacts on people and businesses;
- when to reinforce levees and at what level, to help reduce damage to areas nearby.
Using AHPS and by coordinating hydrologic forecast capabilities with advances in climate prediction, NWS forecasters can provide water managers with statistical data useful in making difficult decisions about water allocation and economics when there is drought potential, such as:
- whether to release water from reservoirs in the spring or hold it for anticipated agricultural and industrial needs;
- how much water to release to agriculture needs during marginal precipitation years;
- how to price and manage water in the most cost effective manner;
- assessment of risks and potential economic impacts, when used in conjunction with sophisticated economic models.
The NWS has been operating AHPS for the Des Moines River Basin, Iowa, since March 1997. North Dakota's Grand Forks Forecast Office began using AHPS on the Red River of the North and its tributaries in Minnesota and North Dakota in January 2001. Contingent on funding, the NWS has finalized plans to expand implementation of AHPS to Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan and parts of Iowa, Missouri, and North Dakota. The expansion will also include tributaries within the Ohio River basin in parts of Kentucky, Ohio, and western Pennsylvania. AHPS applies new science which provides more accurate forecasts for flow conditions ranging from droughts to floods. AHPS provides more information in a timely and user-friendly manner, including visual products which can be posted on the web. This initiative, once it is broadly implemented, will help save lives and money.
Relevant Web Sites
Posted March 15, 2001
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