CHANCE OF NORTHEAST FLOODING HIGHEST IN THREE YEARS
Threat of Ice Jams and Rapid Snow Melt Loom Over Northeast River Basins

January 10, 2001 — With mild winter seasons of the past few years a distant memory, Winter 2001 has set the stage for the greatest risk of flooding in the Northeast in three years, according to a special winter flood potential forecast issued today by NOAA's National Weather Service. (NOAA photo of Pittsburgh, Pa., flood January 1996.) (Click image to see more photos.)

Recent snow storms and below normal temperatures have created an above-normal threat for flooding in northern New Jersey, extreme northeastern Pennsylvania, and southern New York State, including the Catskill area, the Weather Service reports.

"People in these areas should have a heightened awareness for the chance of flooding this season, especially ice jam flooding due to the freezing of many local rivers," said Sol Summer, hydrology division chief for the NWS Eastern Region.

Snow depths in the parts of Susquehanna, Delaware, Raritan, and Passaic River Basins are running 20-60 percent above normal at this time, Summer said. "And below-normal temperatures have created extensive river ice which extends well into Virginia—a condition not observed for the past several years," he said. "While not an immediate problem, these atypical river ice conditions will be closely monitored as winter continues."

In contrast, below normal flood potential exists in the Ohio Valley and in the Carolinas where river flows are below normal. Drought conditions also persist in the central and western Carolinas, the Weather Service said.

For the remainder of New York State and New England, the winter flood risk is expected to be normal, with snow depths of 5-10 inches and extensive river ice coverage prevailing throughout the region. Although areas of far western New York near Buffalo have received near record snowfall this season, snow melt that occurred in mid-December has returned the flood potential to normal.

"While the river flood potential conditions are varied across the East, keep in mind that historically, the most devastating winter river floods have been associated with a combination of heavy rainfall, rapid snow melt, and/or ice jams," Summer noted. None of these conditions, however, are expected in the next two weeks.

National Weather Service River Forecast Centers and Weather Forecast Offices will continue to monitor and forecast the 2001 winter/spring flood potential and will provide public updates on alternating Fridays beginning Jan. 19 and extending into April.

Relevant Web Sites
Residents can monitor National Weather Service flood information in various ways, including NOAA Weather Radio, local media, and online at NOAA's National Weather Service.

NOAA's Flood Links

NOAA's Flash Flood Safety Rules

UPS AND DOWNS MARK YEAR IN WEATHER FOR 2000, NOAA SAYS
FORECASTERS UPDATE WINTER 2000-01 OUTLOOK

2000 IN REVIEW: THE YEAR BEGAN WITH RECORD WARMTH IN THE U.S. AND ENDS WITH COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTRY
Annual U.S. and Global Temperatures Remain Well above Average

The following National Weather Service Web sites are available to provide up-to-the-minute winter weather information.

Current winter storm watches, warnings and temperatures across the United States

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center — Winter Outlook 2000-2001

National forecasts that extend from three to 14 days in advance

Winter weather safety and preparedness tips to handle snow, ice, wind and bitter cold temperatures

Map showing the latest conditions over the United States

NOAA's Weather Page — includes latest satellite images and weather maps

NOAA's National Weather Service Office of Climate, Water, and Weather Services

NOAA's National Weather Service's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center

NOAA ISSUES NATION'S OFFICIAL WINTER OUTLOOK — Initial outlook unveiled October 12, 2000

NOAA Weather Radio

Media Contacts:
Bob Chartuk, NOAA's National Weather Service Eastern Region, (631) 244-0166

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