NOAA SCIENTISTS BEGIN ANOTHER SEASON OF HURRICANE FLYING TO IMPROVE TRACK AND INTENSITY PREDICTIONS

June 2, 2000 — With hurricane season underway, NOAA scientists begin a season of experiments aimed at improving hurricane track and intensity forecasting while flying aboard NOAA's P-3 Orion and G-IV Gulfstream "hurricane hunter" aircraft. The scientists are based at NOAA's Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory in Miami, Fla.

The first experiment will use new ocean measurement probes to study a large eddy of warm water now located in the Gulf of Mexico and the role these warm water energy pockets play in the rapid intensification of hurricanes. These results will be contrasted with the role of large-scale weather systems, such as wind shear, in hurricane intensification. Scientists believe that deep, warm-water eddies have caused Gulf hurricanes, such as Camille in 1969, and Opal in 1995, to become more intense just hours before landfall.

The second test will measure winds around the hurricanes and incorporate the measurements in computer forecasting models. The 2000 experiments build upon the results of the previous 18 years, which showed that forecast accuracy increased by as much as 31 percent when compared to models run without the observations. By targeting specific points around the storm that provide the most crucial data for accurate forecasting, this project aims to further increase forecast accuracy.

Since 1956, NOAA scientists and NOAA Corps researchers and aviators have made arduous research flights directly through the centers of Atlantic hurricanes in winds sometimes as high as 180 mph. The goals of these airborne experiments are more accurate hurricane predictions and more timely warnings. NOAA's Hurricane Center, Climate Prediction Center, and Hurricane Research Division expect the 2000 hurricane season to be above average during its peak from August 1 - October 31.

NOAA's mission is to describe and predict changes in the Earth's environment, and conserve and wisely manage the nation's coastal and marine resources.

The archived webcast of the May 10 hurricane news conference is available at "Hurricanes: Nature's Greastest Storms."
A recap of the 1999 hurricane season, graphics and other hurricane information is also available on that site.

Relevant Web Sites
NOAA's Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory

For more information visit NOAA's Climate Prediction Center to view the hurricane season outlook.

Satellite Imagery of Atlantic Hurricanes

Climate-Watch, September 1999 — Summary of Hurricane Floyd and Colorized Satellite Images

Hurricane Floyd Report from NOAA's National Hurricane Center

NOAA's WD P-3 Orion "Hurricane Hunter" Aircraft

NOAA's National Hurricane Center

All About Storm Surge

1999 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON STATISTICS

ATLANTIC HURRICANE 1999 SEASON SUMMARY

Media Contact:
Jana Goldman, NOAA Research, (301) 713-2483 ext. 181.

 

 

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