NOAA FORECASTERS PREDICT MORE RAIN SOON FOR FLOOD STRICKEN MOZAMBIQUE
Agency Hydrologists Helping Plan Risky Water Release at Two Large Dams on Flooded Zambezi River

March 3, 2000 — Climate experts of NOAA's National Weather Service predict a tropical storm may dump several inches of heavy rainfall over Mozambique's already flood ravaged Zambezi river basin as early as Monday. The latest forecast from NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Prediction shows the tropical cyclone currently over Madagascar and is expected to weaken slightly. The projected track of the storm still brings it across the Mozambique Channel, with the strong likelihood that it will strengthen as it moves westward into Mozambique over the next 2-3 days. Forecasters say the storm will weaken as it passes over Madagascar, but will likely strengthen over the Channel and head into Mozambique, as did the previous storm.

In addition to weather forecasting, NOAA is providing other operational support with river forecasts and satellite imagery. A team of NOAA's National Weather Service hydrologists is calculating the potential impacts of releasing water from two huge dams (Cariba and Cahora Bassa) on the Zambezi river which are experiencing high runoff inflows into the dams. These dams are two of the largest in the world and their operation greatly affects a large flood prone population downstream between the dams and the Indian Ocean. The White House requested that NOAA water experts support the U.S. flood response efforts by calculating flood crests downstream of the dam using the latest models which will determine the potential downstream consequences of water release and help dam operators manage additional flooding. NOAA expects the river forecasts to be available within 24-48 hours.

At present the NOAA hydrologists are working with Mozambique officials to gather the topographic maps and water release parameters (how much, how far along the river system to run impact evaluation, etc.) needed to run the agency's various stream cross-section analysis and river forecast models.

Also, NOAA's environmental satellite experts are using a Canadian Space Agency satellite to collect and analyze high-resolution data and images which are passed daily to Mozambique officials, USAID Foreign Disaster Assistance Office and others so they may examine the extent and impact of the flood waters to the region.

"I am proud that NOAA is able to swiftly provide this level of weather and water forecast support in such a dire situation. Everyone involved seems to understand the human as well as the environmental importance of the situation," said Louis Uccellini, director of NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Prediction.

NOAA Media Contacts:
Scott Smullen, (202) 482-6090 or Greg Hernandez, (202) 482-3091

Related Web Sites:
Current Weather Conditions for Mozambique

Latest Weather Satellite Images

High-resolution Satellite Images for the Media

NOAA'S ROLE IN RADARSAT

 

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