ERIKA CONTINUING WESTWARD AND STRENGTHENING; LANDFALL FORECAST IN SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AS A HURRICANE BEFORE DAYBREAK (See the NOAA National Hurricane Center for the latest information on this storm. Complete advisories are posted at 11 a.m., 5 p.m., 11 p.m. and 5 a.m. All times are Eastern. Advisories are posted more frequently as the storm nears the USA mainland.) Aug. 15, 2003 � The NOAA National Hurricane Center in Miami, Fla., reports that at 11 p.m. the center of Tropical Storm Erika was located near latitude 26.0 north, longitude 95.4 west or about 130 miles east of Brownsville, Texas. Erika is moving toward the west near 21 mph, and this motion is expected to continue with some decrease in forward speed for the next 24 hours. This motion should bring the center of Erika to the western Gulf Coast near Brownsville early Saturday morning. (Click NOAA image for larger view of Tropical Storm Erika taken Aug. 15, 2003, at 11:45 p.m. EDT. Please credit “NOAA.”) Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected before landfall, and Erika should become a hurricane in the next few hours. Erika will likely make landfall as a Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. Weakening is forecast after landfall. (Click NOAA tracking map of Tropical Storm Erika for larger view.) Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles from the center. The extrapolated minimum central pressure just reported by an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft is 992 mb, 29.29 inches. Storm surge flooding is expected to be 3 to 6 feet above normal tide levels, along with large battering waves, near and to the north of where the center crosses the coast. Rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated higher amounts, can be expected near the path of Erika. This could cause flash floods and mudslides in areas near elevated terrain. Radar data shows outer rainbands should reach the coast shortly. There is a possibility of isolated tornadoes along the middle and lower Texas coast Friday night. A hurricane warning is in effect from Brownsville to Baffin Bay, Texas. A hurricane warning is also in effect from La Pesca, Mexico, northward to the U.S. border. A hurricane warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion in the hurricane warning area. A tropical storm warning remains in effect from north of Baffin Bay to Port O’Connor.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by NOAA National Weather Service local forecast offices. NOAA is dedicated to enhancing economic security and national safety through the prediction and research of weather and climate-related events and providing environmental stewardship of the nation�s coastal and marine resources. NOAA is part of the U.S. Department of Commerce. Relevant Web Sites
NOAA National Hurricane Center — Get the latest advisories here
NOAA Atlantic Hurricanes Database — 150 Years of Atlantic Hurricanes
NOAA Forecasters Say Six to Nine Hurricanes Could Threaten in 2003
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale
NOAA River Forecast Centers
NOAA Flood Products
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24-hour Observed Precipitation as of 8 a.m. today
Latest rainfall data as of 8 a.m. EDT today
NOAA Buoys NOAA Tides Online
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NOAA Hurricanes Page
NOAA Storm Watch — Get the latest severe weather information across the USA Media Contact:
Frank Lepore, NOAA Hurricane Center, (305) 229-4404
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