EL NIÑO ON TRACK TO INFLUENCE U.S. WINTER, NOAA REPORTS
Forecasters Monitor Warming Ocean Temperatures

November 7, 2002 — Climate and weather experts from NOAA today said El Niño remains on track to influence weather across the United States during the upcoming winter season. Currently, NOAA scientists classify the El Niño’s intensity as moderate, but are watching closely for any further strengthening. “Following the recent trends, we expect the waters in the eastern equatorial Pacific to continue to warm, and mature El Niño conditions will prevail through February 2003. Although an increase in the strength of this El Niño is possible, we don’t expect it to compare with the 1997-98 version. Also, the global impacts should generally be weaker” said Vernon Kousky, a meteorologist at the NOAA Climate Prediction Center. (Click NOAA satellite image for larger view of El Niño conditions as of Nov. 4, 2002. Click here for latest conditions. Please credit “NOAA.”)

NOAA issued its first outlook for the upcoming winter season on Sept. 12 and still asserts those projected conditions are on course. The nation can expect drier-than-average conditions in states in the Ohio Valley and northern Rockies; wetter-than-average conditions, with increased storm activity across the South; and warmer-than-average conditions across the north, including southern and southeastern Alaska.

NOAA will update its official national Winter 2002-2003 outlook and El Niño’s status in December.

The CPC issues seasonal climate outlooks from one to 13 months in advance. The CPC is one of the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Prediction, which is a part of NOAA National Weather Service. NOAA Weather Service is the primary source of weather data, forecasts and warnings for the United States and its territories, and operates the most advanced weather and flood warning and forecast system in the world, helping to protect lives and property and enhance the national economy.

Relevant Web Sites
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center

El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic Discussion

El Niño to Play Role in Nation’s Fall, Winter Weather

Weekly El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Update

Most Recent 2 Months Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly Animation

El Niño and La Niña-related Winter Features over North America

NOAA's El Niño Theme Page

NOAA's El Niño Home Page

CLIMATE FACTORS HELPING TO SHAPE WINTER 2001-2002

NOAA's CURRENT SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE MAPS

ENSO Fact Sheet

ENSO Frequently Asked Questions

ENSO Tutorial

ENSO Recent Events

Sea Surface Temperature Outlook

ENSO Impacts by Region

NOAA's Storm Watch — Get the latest severe weather information across the USA

NOAA's Drought Information Center

Media Contact:
Carmeyia Gillis, NOAA Climate Prediction Center, (301) 763-8000 ext. 7163 or John Leslie, NOAA National Weather Service, (301) 713-0622