EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 LILI CONTINUES NORTHWEST TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. GULF COAST;
NOAA Warns Preparations to Protect Life and Property in the Hurricane Warning Area Should Be Rushed to Completion (See NOAA's National Hurricane Center for the latest information on this storm. Complete advisories are posted at 11 a.m., 5 p.m., 11 p.m. and 5 a.m. All times are Eastern. Advisories are posted more frequently as the storm nears the USA mainland.) October 2, 2002 — At 5 p.m. EDT, the center of Hurricane Lili was located near latitude 25.9 north, longitude 90.0 west or about 285 miles south of New Orleans, La. This position is also about 275 south-southeast of Marsh Island on the south central Louisiana coast. Lili is moving toward the northwest near 16 mph, and a gradual turn toward the north is expected during the next 24 hours. This motion would bring the center near the coast of south central or southwestern Louisiana on Thursday, according to the NOAA National Hurricane Center in Miami, Fla. (Click NOAA satellite image for larger view of Hurricane Lili taken at 4:45 p.m. EDT on Oct. 2, 2002. Click here for high resolution version, which is a large file. Click here to see latest view. Please credit “NOAA.”)
Reports from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft and a NOAA research hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph with higher gusts. This makes Lili an extremely dangerous Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale. While some fluctuations in strength are possible during the next 24 hours, Lili is expected to make landfall as a major hurricane. A hurricane warning remains in effect from east of High Island, Texas, to the mouth of the Mississippi River. Preparations to protect life and property in the hurricane warning area should be rushed to completion.
A tropical storm warning remains in effect from Freeport to High Island, Texas, from east of the mouth of the Mississippi River to the Alabama/Florida border, including New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 45 miles from the center, and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 185 miles. Hurricane-force winds are expected to spread inland up to 150 miles near the track of the center of Lili. NOAA buoy 42001 recently reported an eight-minute sustained wind of 105 mph with a gust to 148 mph.
The latest minimum central pressure reported by the aircraft is 938 mb, 27.70 inches. A life-threatening storm surge of 10 to 20 feet above normal tide levels is likely near and to the east of where the center crosses the coast. The surge could spread as much as 25 miles inland across the low-lying portions of the hurricane warning area along the track. Rainfall accumulations of 6 to 10 inches are possible along the track of Lili. These rains could cause dangerous flooding. Isolated tornadoes are possible over southern Louisiana Wednesday night.
Special Statements from NOAA Weather Forecast Offices to be Impacted by Lili. Lake Charles, La., Local Statement Houston/Galveston, Texas, Local Statement New Orleans, La., Local Statement For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by NOAA National Weather Service local forecast offices. NOAA’s HURRICANE FACTS LAST TIME A HURRICANE STRUCK THE U.S. MAINLAND Bret, Padre Island, south Texas, Aug. 22, 1999. Sustained winds of 115 mph, Category 3. Floyd, Cape Fear, N.C., Sept. 16, 1999. Sustained winds of 105 mph, Category 2.
Irene, south Florida, October 15, 1999. Sustained winds of 75 mph, Category 1. During their lifetimes, Bret and Floyd were Category 4 storms but weakened before landfall.
Last U.S. land falling Category 5 storm: Andrew, Dade County, Florida, Aug. 24, 1992
Last U.S. land falling Category 4 storm: Hugo, Charleston, S.C., September 22, 1989 Last U.S. land falling Category 3 storm: Bret, Padre Island, south Texas, Aug. 22, 1999 Click NOAA tracking map for larger view.
Relevant Web Sites
NOAA's National Hurricane Center — Get the latest advisories here
NOAA's Atlantic Hurricanes Database — 150 Years of Atlantic Hurricanes
El Niño Expected to Impact Atlantic Hurricane Season, NOAA Reports
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale
NOAA's River Forecast Centers
NOAA's Flood Products
NOAA Rainfall Graphics
24-hour Observed Precipitation as of 8 a.m. today
Latest rainfall data as of 8 a.m. EDT today
NOAA Buoys NOAA's Tides Online
NOAA Satellite Images — The latest satellite views
Colorized Satellite Images
NOAA 3-D Satellite Images
NOAA's Hurricanes Page
NOAA's Storm Watch — Get the latest severe weather information across the USA Media Contact:
Frank Lepore, NOAA's National Hurricane Center, (305) 229-4404
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