LILI BECOMES CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE AS EYE MOVES ACROSS WESTERN CUBA (See NOAA's National Hurricane Center for the latest information on this storm. Complete advisories are posted at 11 a.m., 5 p.m., 11 p.m. and 5 a.m. All times are Eastern. Advisories are posted more frequently as the storm nears the USA mainland.) October 1, 2002 — At 2 p.m. EDT, the center of Hurricane Lili was located near latitude 22.3 north, longitude 84.4 west or over western Cuba about 45 miles northeast of Cabo San Antonio. This position is also about 135 miles southwest of Havana, Cuba. Lili is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph, and this motion is expected to continue with some slight increase in forward speed during the next 24 hours. This motion should bring the center of Lili into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico during the next few hours, according to the NOAA National Hurricane Center in Miami, Fla. (Click NOAA satellite image for larger view of Hurricane Lili taken at 11:15 a.m. EDT on Oct. 1, 2002. Click here to see latest view. Please credit “NOAA.”)
Reports from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph with higher gusts. This makes Lili a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale. Additional strengthening is forecast as the center moves into the Gulf of Mexico.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles from the center, and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles. The estimated minimum central pressure is 971 mb, 28.67 inches. (Click NOAA satellite image for larger view of Hurricane Lili taken at 8:15 a.m. EDT on Oct. 1, 2002.) A storm surge of 8 to 10 feet above normal tide levels, along with battering waves, can be expected along the south coast of western Cuba Tuesday. A storm surge of 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels is possible along the north coast of western Cuba in areas of onshore flow.
Rainfall accumulations of 8 to 12 inches, with isolated higher amounts, are likely near the path of Lili. These rains could cause life-threatening flash flooding and mud slides in mountainous areas. A hurricane warning remains in effect for the Cuban provinces of Matanzas, Ciudad de La Habana, La Habana, Pinar del Rio and the Isle of Youth. A tropical storm watch is in effect for the north coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Cozumel to Progreso. A hurricane watch may be required for portions of the northwestern and northern coasts of the Gulf of Mexico later Tuesday. Interests in these area should monitor the progress of Lili. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by NOAA National Weather Service local forecast offices. NOAA’s HURRICANE FACTS LAST TIME A HURRICANE STRUCK THE U.S. MAINLAND Bret, Padre Island, south Texas, Aug. 22, 1999. Sustained winds of 115 mph, Category 3. Floyd, Cape Fear, N.C., Sept. 16, 1999. Sustained winds of 105 mph, Category 2.
Irene, south Florida, October 15, 1999. Sustained winds of 75 mph, Category 1. During their lifetimes, both storms were Category 4 but weakened before landfall.
Last U.S. land falling Category 5 storm: Andrew, Dade County, Florida, Aug. 24, 1992
Last U.S. land falling Category 4 storm: Hugo, Charleston, S.C., September 22, 1989 Last U.S. land falling Category 3 storm: Bret, Padre Island, south Texas, Aug. 22, 1999 Click NOAA tracking map for larger view.
Relevant Web Sites
NOAA's National Hurricane Center — Get the latest advisories here
NOAA's Atlantic Hurricanes Database — 150 Years of Atlantic Hurricanes
El Niño Expected to Impact Atlantic Hurricane Season, NOAA Reports
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale
NOAA's River Forecast Centers
NOAA's Flood Products
NOAA Rainfall Graphics
24-hour Observed Precipitation as of 8 a.m. today
Latest rainfall data as of 8 a.m. EDT today
NOAA Buoys NOAA's Tides Online
NOAA Satellite Images — The latest satellite views
Colorized Satellite Images
NOAA 3-D Satellite Images
NOAA's Hurricanes Page
NOAA's Storm Watch — Get the latest severe weather information across the USA Media Contact:
Frank Lepore, NOAA's National Hurricane Center, (305) 229-4404
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